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Started by Helge V. Keitel. Last reply by Helge V. Keitel Feb 8, 2009. 3 Replies 0 Likes
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A detailed Analysis of the North American wood products market. As always, this signature report offers a five-year forecast for supply, demand and prices, including mill operating rates and covers lumber, OSB, Plywood, MDF and particleboard. Your purchase options are:
China is Russia’s largest and most important export market: in 2015, 90% of Russian log exports and 45% of lumber exports were to China.
Source: Wood Markets
It should be a wake-up call to exporters to China that Russia can make some big swings in the markets it ships its lumber to, and has a favorable cost structure and supply chain plus increasing capacity to do so.
“The Russians are coming” was a key theme of the Global Softwood Log and Lumber Conference held in Vancouver in early May 2016, and current trade data certainly supports this changing trend.
At the Global Conference, it was quite evident from the various Russian speakers that major reductions in logging costs and transportation costs had occurred from the devaluation of the ruble.
This allowed the reach of Russian lumber to expand, where new markets can be explored when existing markets become over-supplied.
As well, new sawmill investments had been established in Russia and additional ones, including large-scale export-oriented facilities, are in various stages of planning.
Russian softwood lumber exports to China were 1.55 million m3 in April 2016, up by 81% from March’s 853,000 m3. March volumes were already up by 55% from February.
In fact, Russia’s March export volumes to China had been the largest-ever single month’s volume to China by a single country; that makes the April export volumes even more staggering. Russian softwood lumber exports are now 50% higher than the same four-month period in 2015 — or 3.6 million m3 (2.2 billion bf- nominal) versus 2.4 million m3.
The specific reasons for this massive increase and whether this is a blip on the radar or not still needs to be qualified, but initial reports indicate that it is partly related to shifting exports away from weak markets in Egypt and diverting excess production to China.
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