Forecasting housing starts in USA has been elusive, but it is critically important as new residential construction represents one of the largest consumption segments for lumber and panels.
For those that use housing forecasts in their business plans, using the consensus forecasts in 2014 of 770,000 single family housing starts would have resulted in forecasts of almost 2 billion board feet of extra lumber demand.
This type of forecasted demand increase would have suggested a much tighter supply and demand balance, where higher lumber price forecasts could be another one of the wrong predictions.
And WOOD MARKETS’ U.S. housing forecast for 2016 (in WOOD MARKETS 2016) is once again lower than the Consensus forecast – no surprise here! And our consultants have a decidedly conservative tone to North America and Chinese demand as well as prices for 2016 – all predicted before any signs of the current global economic volatility started!
Those subscribers who have used WOOD MARKETS’ 5-year forecasts over the years have obtained more accurate forecasts in terms of: housing starts; lumber, OSB and plywood production; exports (due to our international project work); price forecasts; and other trends. Contact WOOD MARKETS’ consultants and start making better strategic and business decisions based on a proven perspective that continues to be more grounded and accurate than the arm-chair economist!
Full details of the five-year outlook for the U.S. and Canada’s lumber and panels (OSB, plywood, MDF and particleboard) consumption, imports, exports, production and price trends are available in WOOD Markets 2016: The Solid Wood Products Outlook – 2016 to 2020 (released in mid-December, 2015). Visit https://www.woodmarkets.com/publication/5-year-outlook/
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